Can somewhat increased diesel arbs into Europe and strong refining runs overcome the continuing Middle East tensions?

Commentary summary:

• USGC TA arbs closed but point to Europe whilst AG/WCI diesel arbs marginally point East.
• Global spreads and cracks give back most of the Middle East conflict induced gains. However, doubts about how long the ceasefire will hold leads to gains again in the last 12-24 hours.
• Iran/Isreal announce a ceasefire but how strong is the deal?
• Middle East issues aside, fundamentals paint a moderately bearish picture, but everything feels overshadowed by the volatility of that situation.

In a market increasingly shaped by both geopolitical tremors and structural trade flows, the global middle distillate complex now demands analysis on two distinct fronts.

James Noel-Beswick is Commodity Owner for Sparta. Before joining Sparta, James worked as an analyst for likes of BP and Shell and leads our continued development of the distillate product vertical.