Brent rally now begins in earnest
Commentary summary:
• The week so far was spent counting the number of hits to port, refineries, power plants, LNG plants in the region.
• The big problem is who gets what crude and when. The West is long crude and less dependent on AG than the East. It has freight advantages too.
Obviously the below can age very badly within a few hours, but as I see it, we have a situation where Iran’s ability to disrupt not only traffic in Hormuz, but also oil & gas infrastructure in the region is being actively proven.
The week so far was spent counting the number of hits to port, refineries, power plants, LNG plants in the region.
Depending on some assumptions I can already put the number on actual wellhead/pipeline/refinery liquids loss to market from the war at well over 1 MBD. Obviously, this pales in comparison to the risk of Hormuz not moving.
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