Bearish fundamentals coming back to the fore as shocks averted
17 October 2024
Time to read: minutes
Commentary summary:
- Physical crude market increasingly pricing the problem of too much light sweet supply
- Margins are not high enough to send refiners ramping utilisation out of maintenance season (in fact, runs may disappoint seasonally speaking)
- US product stocks are low, but some of this maybe a push to export domestic weakness
Over the last few weeks, crude spreads were kept afloat first by Libya, then by the threat of supply disruption in the Middle East. Libya has returned to market and started to crush premiums in Europe. Ample light sweet supply has even started to price the marginal WTI barrel out of Europe this week.
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