Asian refiners struggle to replace Middle East oil, face output cuts

June Goh

Senior Oil Market Analyst

4 March 2026 Time to read:  minutes
“Run cuts will be necessary to maintain refining runs for as long as it takes before stocks run off or if the oil is flowing again from the Strait of Hormuz,” said ⁠June Goh, ​a senior analyst at Sparta Commodities. Typically, refineries can reduce intake by 20% ​to 30% from nameplate capacity, she added.

Reuters, March 4, 2026 – Asian refiners may cut output as the U.S.–Iran conflict disrupts shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for Middle Eastern crude. Replacement barrels from Brazil, West Africa, and the U.S. are slow and costly to secure due to long voyages and higher freight rates, pushing up crude premiums. Analysts expect refiners to reduce runs by about 5% to 30% until supply flows stabilize.

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