Are the bears finally coming out for Sing 0.5?

I have wanted to write this piece for over two weeks now ever since I spoke about the warning signs that were flashing for Sing 0.5 in our weekly podcast but I have refrained from doing so for the simple reason that this market loves to over-extend in one direction very quickly, especially since 2022. Being too early in a trade is the same as being wrong.

Sing 0.5 Jun/Jul spread has already fallen somewhat to $8.5-8.75 since hitting $10/MT just a couple days back. The warning signs for further downside are still there in my opinion, though admittedly less severe compared to what we saw in the Blender tools just last week.

Sing 0.5 Jun/Jul

Projected forward blend costs have finally crept up again since last week with the adjustments to Australian crude diffs and others.

From what we’ve heard, Dangote LSSR also seems to have adjusted up with the latest tender, from Barge + 11 previously for the mid-May loader (we will update the tools with the exact diffs later today).

Nevertheless, these June loaders will mostly get reflected in July blending economics instead. The fact remains that the May loaders should still land pretty cheaply in Singapore in June.

Hoa brings extensive experience, having led fuel oil analysis at Trafigura and worked across crude, diesel, and APAC power markets. Hoa now leads the development of Sparta’s forward-looking tools for fuel oil and feedstocks.

Sparta is a live, market intelligence and forecasting platform that enables oil traders, refiners, banks, hedge funds and wholesalers to have access to real-time and global actionable insights to capture market opportunities before others.

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