Arbs pointing to Europe indicate a more bearish end to October though ongoing Russian refinery attacks moderate that view

Commentary summary:

• Global diesel pricing largely flat, cracks receive a boost from Russian issues, whilst global jet finds a floor and makes gains.

• USGC and USAC arbs open or close to open into Europe whilst AG/WCI diesel and jet arbs point West into Europe.

• Sixteen of Russia’s 38 refineries have been struck since early August, several multiple times, including the 340kbd Ryazan plant near Moscow, one of the country’s largest.

• Some support for the GO E/W and Sing diesel pricing, whilst ICE GO should feel the weight of increased arb arrivals particularly as we approach October’s end, though increasing Russian refinery outages and global maintenance remain important to monitor.

Neil Crosby is an experienced energy market and commodity analyst, specialising in crude oil, oil products, biofuels, and carbon. With roles at OilX and JBC Energy, he has extensive expertise in global oil industry analysis, forecasting tools, bespoke research, and client communication. His focus on refining and petrochemicals underscores his specialisation.