Arbs neutral-bullish Europe; headlines impossible

Commentary summary:

• Arbs into Europe for Jan are mostly trending closed, outside of brief pockets into New York from India, and the USG into Rotterdam on paper

• Flows on these routes may nonetheless be limited by other factors (e.g. USG-Brazil)

• Jet arbs are also relatively bullish NWE dist

• Warm weather and (now fading) prospects of peace probably put ICE GO pricing into a lull

• Sing 10 still has a relatively poorer outlook at least on the arb basis (bearish E/W)

This morning’s headlines appear to suggest a Ukraine deal will not be reached any time soon, while there is escalation in rhetoric from the Russian side around tanker attacks just as Ukraine’s attacks on tankers gets underway.

James Noel-Beswick is Commodity Owner for Sparta. Before joining Sparta, James worked as an analyst for likes of BP and Shell and leads our continued development of the distillate product vertical.