Arbs close into Europe adding to a bullish correction for EU diesel and jet, whilst Sing should receive more diesel

Commentary summary:

• USGC MR diesel arbs closed to Europe and Latam whilst AG/WCI diesel arbs point East.

• ICE GO and HO spreads decline whilst Singapore diesel spreads gain.

• US diesel demand falls to its lowest seasonal level since 2020.

• An argument to be bullish ICE GO spreads into expiry, as it should expire above that of Sep/Nov. Whilst the narrowing of the GO (and jet) E/W should have done enough at -$28 /mt.

Neil Crosby is an experienced energy market and commodity analyst, specialising in crude oil, oil products, biofuels, and carbon. With roles at OilX and JBC Energy, he has extensive expertise in global oil industry analysis, forecasting tools, bespoke research, and client communication. His focus on refining and petrochemicals underscores his specialisation.