AG/WCI diesel pointing to Eastern strength may offer some support, but the overall trend for global distillate remains bearish

Commentary summary:

• USGC diesel arbs point to Latin America but are also open into Europe.

• Some strength in prompt Singapore middle distillate spreads, but deferred spreads globally move into contango.

• Tariff induced middle distillate demand doubts continue to be felt.

• We could see an argument for some more short-term strength in East Asian middle distillate, with also some pull from the USWC. However, ICE GO and HO feel quite bearish from here.

Neil Crosby is an experienced energy market and commodity analyst, specialising in crude oil, oil products, biofuels, and carbon. With roles at OilX and JBC Energy, he has extensive expertise in global oil industry analysis, forecasting tools, bespoke research, and client communication. His focus on refining and petrochemicals underscores his specialisation.