2026 – Another year of paper glut but too many unknowables

Commentary summary:

• Barrel counters still see huge crude surpluses having already emerged and worsening into 2026.

• Even if the pace of demand growth doubles next year vs 2025 (lets say to +1.5 MBD), this probably won’t make much of a dent to the surplus, or not enough of a dent.

• OPEC+ (or core OPEC) may well be forced into action with supply growth from key Non-OPEC competitors not appearing to slow as much as expected (namely the US).

• With limited additional refining capacity coming online y-o-y, margins are set to remain high as long as demand doesn’t collapse.

• Geopolitics looks likely to make for another very difficult year of trading.

We are not in the business of doing balances, but clearly the numbers still being published by various public, private agencies, and in conversation with all our contacts, seem to be pretty outstanding.