2025 – What lies ahead for Crude?
Commentary Summary:
– Balance forecasts are divergent while geopolitical risks are high.
– Most crude supply growth will be WoS, risks to supply are EoS. EFS may have to react.
– Governments feel emboldened to tackle Russian & Iranian energy, potentially as a result of 2024 pricing (a key one being much lower gasoline/diesel at the pump).
The year is ending with the consensus from major agencies over long 2025 liquids balances starting to break down. The EIA’s STEO recently shifted their 2025 liquids to a draw despite continuing to bring back some OPEC+ barrels next year.
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