2025 global diesel market: outlook and expectations
Commentary summary:
– Supply tightness to ease at the end of Q2 2025: Increasing global refinery runs and the possible return of Chinese diesel exports are expected to ease supply constraints by the end of Q2 2025.
– Arbitrage dynamics to shift: USGC to Europe and Middle Eastern flows will adapt to evolving freight rates and regional demand.
– Colder winter impact: A potentially colder Q1 could provide early-year support for prices, though medium-term pressures suggest a bearish pivot.
– Maintenance cycles crucial: Scheduled maintenance across the US, Europe, and Asia in Q1 will shape near-term supply challenges, with significant impacts expected into Q2.
The opening months of 2025 present a complex landscape for diesel markets, with bullish signals tempered by emerging medium-term headwinds.
James Noel-Beswick is Commodity Owner for Sparta. Before joining Sparta, James worked as an analyst for likes of BP and Shell and leads our continued development of the distillate product vertical.
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